5月7日下午2:30，南开经济研究所双周学术讨论会将举行。

本期讲座题目为：Risk as Excuses to Postpone Effort-Provision

欢迎老师、同学届时参加讲座。

主讲人

邹文博 副研究员

主讲人简介: 邹文博，南开大学经济学院副研究员。研究领域为行为与实验经济学、发展经济学。先后主持国家自然科学基金青年项目、南开大学亚洲研究中心资助研究项目等；目前已在Experimental Economics、Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization、World Development 等国内外核心期刊发表多篇文章。

讲座摘要：This paper studies whether risk can serve as an excuse for present-focused intertemporal choices. We propose that when a decision directly combines risk and time, uncertainty creates interpretive flexibility: individuals can justify choices that reduce immediate effort while preserving a favorable self-image of patience or self-control. We test this mechanism in two laboratory experiments using real-effort tasks. Experiment 1 elicits two target lottery valuations involving tradeoffs between periods 1 and 2 and finds evidence consistent with the predicted excuse-driven wedge in lottery valuations, as well as motivated information avoidance. Experiment 2 extends the design by adding tradeoffs between periods 3 and 4, allowing a comparison between present-future and future-future choices. The excuse-driven wedge appears for both lotteries in future-future tradeoffs, but only for one of the two lotteries in present-future tradeoffs. This asymmetry suggests that present-future choices over effort are shaped not only by excuse-driven procrastination, but also by a countervailing preference to complete unpleasant tasks earlier: many choices imply negative discounting for effort, indicating a desire to finish tasks today rather than postpone them. Overall, the results show that measured time preferences over effort depend on whether risk and time are jointly elicited, and highlight the importance of distinguishing excuse-driven procrastination from motives for early task completion. 

讲座时间：2026年5月7日 下午2:30

讲座地点：经济学院八楼大会议室

主办单位：南开经济研究所